In July 2012, I wrote an article predicting some of the changes that we would see in the in the UK waste industry within five years i.e. by 2017. It’s now an appropriate time to review the extent to which my expectations were met and to offer some thoughts on what we might expect in a further five years’ time, by 2022.
2012-2017
At the time of my article in 2012, I predicted that despite some arguing for a return to weekly household waste collections, that within five years some councils would start to consider monthly collections. I thought that some councils would seek to expand their trade waste collection activities, and many councils would charge for green waste.
I also predicted that the first wave of gasification plants would commence commissioning; RDF exports would exceed 2 million tonnes pa [they were much less than 1m tonnes in 2012]; and we would see new entrants from USA and Asia and from other industries [Air Products launched, but left, Firion has acquired Urbaser , Stobart and SSE are growing fast].
My other predictions included the introduction of longer term PPA and energy futures contracts [not yet plant life, but 10 years is now available]; most regional collection companies will own and operate their own sorting facilities [local recycling and RDF production is now common]; recycled content in products and buildings would be mandatory [sadly, not yet]; and, greater use of RFID tagging on containers [smart bins and software are being deployed]
2017-2022
Perhaps I should quit while I’m ahead, but it’s so tempting to spin the wheel again. So here are my predictions for five years’ time.
I believe that landfill will continue to decline and that the rate of decline will be faster than the escalation in landfill tax rates. As such, the revenue raised from landfill tax will fall. Given the complexity of administering the tax for HMRC, I expect landfill tax to be discontinued by 2022. I also expect a ban on the landfill of biodegradable waste. And, I expect government to seek to replace the landfill tax revenue by introducing a tax on mass burn energy from waste combustion plants without CHP.
I think the frequency of household residual waste collection will be reduced to monthly in those areas where separate food waste collection is in place.
I predict that England will adopt some of the local policies deployed in the devolved nations where these have proved to be successful; post Brexit, UK will sign up to EU waste policies but adopt a light touch in terms of enforcement; and, there will be more EU inspections of green list materials exported from UK via continental ports.
Demand for low quality contaminated recyclates will reduce and Asian importers will progressively move away from manual re-sorting of materials.
In terms of councils, I think more will recognise the advantages of merging waste collection operations, and some councils will take advantage of sophisticated software developments to match bin sizes , types and numbers to the waste generation of their residents. Depending on commodity prices, some councils may rationalise the range of recyclables being collected, preferring to increase quality for a smaller range of materials and to divert the remainder to EfW. Some councils will remove recycling bins from certain properties where contamination is a problem in order that recyclates are of a quality that can be sold. I also believe councils will seek to identify performance breaches as leverage to renegotiate some of the less attractive PFI contracts.
‘Uberisation’
I think the “Uberisation” of commercial waste collections will be well advanced. I also believe there will be M&A driven consolidation in the liquid waste and industrial services market.
Merchant plants [e.g. AD and gasification] which have been funded by private equity will be divested to trade buyers or consolidators.
Smart bins allowing cost savings and service improvements for street litter operations will be widespread, rather than tentative trials as currently.
I also believe a deposit system for plastic bottles may well result from public and political pressure but effectiveness of the system will face challenges from innovative waste criminals
I think the UK will move from being an exporter to being an importer as more wood to energy plants are commissioned; further changes in waste composition will require contract changes and plant modifications; very small AD equipment will be installed at many premises of waste producers; and, whilst processing cost per tonne will be higher, transport costs will be avoided.
And, lastly, I think definition changes e.g. IBA and flaws in the PERN system will allow UK to reach the EU recycling target of 50% by 2020
Subscribe for free