OPINION: Potential landfill bans and tax uncertainty in England, especially as we approach 2028, are leaving many waste operators paralysed. A wave of spiralling costs, expansive permitting delays, and growing uncertainty around regulation – especially landfill tax reform – has left the sector trapped in a state of limbo.
Despite the urgent need to modernise, expand infrastructure, and transition toward sustainable waste management, England’s waste sector finds itself edging ever closer to a precipice. But what’s driving such insecurity, and what must change for the sector to move forward with confidence?
The landfill conundrum
At the heart of the crisis is deep-rooted uncertainty about the future of landfill tax rates in England, as well as plans to ban all biodegradable waste from landfill by 2028. With this date fast approaching and no firm plans in place, waste operators are hesitant to make capital investments or enter long-term contracts – and understandably so. Until the government provides clarity, many companies remain on hold, waiting for guidance that never seems to arrive.
Meanwhile, Scotland has already introduced a phased tax increase, leading to shifts in waste streams and serving as a warning of how a lack of coordination in regional policies can impact the sector as a whole.
The Scotland effect
Scotland’s landfill ban is due in January 2026, and the country’s strict landfill tax increases are already causing ripple effects across economic and operational landscapes. Waste that was previously destined for Scottish sites is now being redirected to England, putting more pressure on already overstretched processing capacity, squeezing profit margins, and causing confusion over cross-border pricing models.
In short, the differing policy approaches within the UK are disrupting business models and weakening the sector’s resilience. Experienced operators, who are no strangers to navigating uncertainty, now face new complexities that require quick and often expensive adjustments amid policy inconsistencies.
Permitting paralysis
Adding further fuel to the fire is a permitting system that feels permanently clogged. The Environment Agency is under-resourced and struggling to review and approve proposals at the required pace – particularly as permit applications become more complex. Sites capable of expanding recycling, implementing aerobic or anaerobic digestion processes, and Energy from Waste (EfW) facilities are left waiting months – sometimes years – for decisions that determine the future of regional waste management.
The delay in permit delivery affects waste operators’ ability to launch new projects, and without a timely pipeline, capacity expansions are stalled. What might have seemed possible two years ago now appears unfeasible, resulting in a slow return on investment and widespread frustration within the industry.
Operating in limbo
Behind these concerns is a harsh reality of financial and workforce stress. For smaller operators, in particular, budgets are tight, and every delay chips away at viability. Skilled staff are leaving for more stable sectors, and innovative projects are coming to a standstill – even those with the potential to reduce costs or improve environmental performance.
To help the industry from this cycle of inaction, steps must be taken in three critical areas:
1. Policy certainty
Defra must clearly communicate plans for landfill tax rates and proposed bans. A phased approach, announced well in advance, would enable businesses to plan with confidence.
2. UK-wide policy coordination
Conflicting systems, while politically understandable, fracture supply chains. Implementing measures to improve policy alignment would reduce cross-border confusion and enable waste management infrastructure to be used more strategically and economically.
3. Permitting reform
Streamlined permitting, supported by increased resourcing and clearer guidelines (especially for new technologies), could unblock project pipelines.
England’s waste sector is not stagnant; it’s on hold. Caught in a perfect storm as businesses watch opportunity drift by. However, with clearer policies, better UK-wide coordination, and quicker permitting, the sector can move out of its limbo and regain momentum towards sustainability, efficiency, and innovation.
Want to hear more from Dr Stephen Wise? Join the Advetec webinar “Unlocking Value From Unrecyclable Waste” on 16 October. Register or find out more here.
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