Separately, other grades are also seeing some price movement: office material is down while the price for old-KLS (used cardboard) fell slightly earlier in the month but now appears to have recovered.
The three existing UK newsprint mills – AbitibiBowater at Ellesmere Port, Aylesford Newsprint in Kent and UPM Shotton on Deeside – are all thought to be facing up to the fact that prices could rise this autumn and have built up their stocks over recent months. At least one, Aylesford, has imported some material, partly because of its proximity to the Continent and also its desire to ensure it has material of sufficient quality.
The latest figures for the UK – which are up to April 2009 – show a massive percentage increase in stock levels at the three mills, up by 56% in March and 38% in April.
Pressure will start to really build once Palm is taking in substantial volumes of used material and this month it takes delivery of its first loads of input material – primarily newspapers with magazines and potentially some other grades – starting on July 22 2009.
The company told letsrecycle.com that the de-inking plant at the mill would start up on schedule in August and production of newpsrint would follow “on a trial basis as planned”. Full production will be reached within two years but interim production figures have not been disclosed.
Germany
The approach by Palm to the market will be the deciding the factor this autumn. The mill could bring in material from Germany and elsewhere which would push its costs up but help it secure part of its supply on a stable basis. It has already appointed a number of suppliers in the UK including Viridor, which has significant tonnages from local authorities such as West Sussex, and is also being supplied by Severnside which is thought to have access to overissue news as well as some material from households. Some independent merchants are also to supply the mill.
Palm could opt for a slower than planned start because of the recession coupled with a desire not to have to pay over the odds for material. Others in the sector consider that Palm has “totally underestimated” the amount of material available and it will be forced to import or pay high prices for UK material. However, the company is thought to feel it is taking a strategic approach and the direction of prices will depend more on normal supply and demand market pressures.
While there are a variety of views on this, there is some consensus that there is more likely to be a shortage of material than a surplus this autumn and a truer picture will emerge in September.
With kerbside collections now the norm across the UK, more paper is being collected. The volumes of newspapers arising at MRFs, according to one leading operator, are unchanged, partly as local authorities extend their rounds and more material is sent through the plants. Attention is being paid though to the fact that used newspapers are thinner while one operator also commented that more magazines were entering the plant compared to recent years.
Pressure
One newsprint purchaser commented that some suppliers were already trying to talk the price up and that the mills would not buy under pressure. Current prices are generally in the range of £65-75 per tonne but some offers to supply have been made at up to £100 per tonne. The mills, however, will start to need the raw material as their production has now recovered after a fall of about 5% in the first three months of the year (compared to 2008). So, if prices do rise it will come as little surprise – last year prices did go over the £100 mark and they also soared when the Aylesford Newsprint PM14 machine started up in 1995.
One dampening factor on the market has been weaker demand from the Continent where machines have been shut down to reduce output of newsprint. On the other hand, there is still fair demand from the Far East for newspapers and some of this is likely to be diverted to the UK later in the year.
Cardboard
On the used cardboard side, prices reduced a few pounds earlier in the month partly because stocks in China were said to be improved and demand for finished material down. However, mid-July is seeing something of a recovery with competition among Chinese mills and some “medium-sized” operations more active in the market and buying some spot tonnage.
Office grades have weakened by around £5 a tonne, largely because buyers from the Indian sub-continent have reduced orders, partly because of the higher prices they have had to pay in the first half of 2009.
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