The data – in the table below – is for the first nine months of 2002, and appears to confirm that the UK is well on track to meet 2002 targets, and as these are the same for 2003, should have little difficulty in meeting requirements next year. Environment Agency figures also show that the actual requirement for PRNs from registered companies schemes is down by 100,000 tonnes in September to 4.7 million rather than 4.8 million.
Availability of PRNs
As a result of the availability of PRNs, prices are likely to continue to edge downwards. Some reprocessors are expected to be willing to offload PRNs in December for relatively low amounts rather than carrying December PRNs forward into 2002. The reprocessors have to return a blank PRN for record-keeping purposes to the Environment Agency and it is expected that this time the reprocessors may prefer to sell these for a nominal sum rather than for nothing at all.
The only spur to the market could be the fact that targets for 2004 are likely to be higher and as a consequence December 2003 PRNs will probably be held over for use in 2004 to help the UK meet its targets that year. This means that 2003 targets might have to be met mainly from PRNs generated in January to November 2003 as well as from some December 2002 PRNs.
Reprocessing
In January to September this year a total of 3,799,760 tonnes were accepted for reprocessing and PRNs or export PRNs can be generated on this tonnage. This leaves about one million tonnes needed in the last quarter although this figure could be reduced by about 180,000 tonnes worth of December PRNs that are believed to have been carried forward from 2001.
Year-on-year comparisons show that the number of PRNs issued in the first six months of the year were up compared to 2002 by about 13%.
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