The agency has forecasted that municipal and packaging waste volumes are both expected in increase in the coming years, while recycling rates are expected to remain largely stagnant and below the European Union (EU) average.
Under EU targets, Ireland must recycle 60% of municipal waste by 2030.
However, the EPA estimates that achieving this will require an additional 500,000 tonnes of material to be recycled annually, underlining what it described as the “scale of the challenge ahead”.
Packaging recycling rates are projected to rise modestly, but the agency warned that these gains will not be enough to meet future obligations if waste generation continues to grow.
Commenting on the findings, David Flynn, Director of the EPA’s Office of Environmental Sustainability, said improvements in packaging recycling were being undermined by increasing waste volumes.
He said: “While recycling rates for packaging are improving, these gains are eroded by continued growth in waste generation.
“The priority now is to implement policy measures in the Government’s Whole of Government Circular Economy Strategy, delivering the practical circular economy solutions to incentivise waste prevention and better material recovery along the full supply chain.”
Ireland’s ‘stagnant’ recycling rate
The forecasts come amid growing concern across the island of Ireland about stagnating recycling performance and increasing reliance on residual waste treatment.
According to the agency, the country’s recycling rate “remains stagnant” at 41%, with no significant improvement in 10 years.
The forecast predicted the rate dropping from 42% to 41.1% in 2024, and rising back up to 42.1% by 2026.
The latest EPA projections suggest Ireland may face similar difficulties in improving municipal recycling rates at the pace required to meet EU targets, particularly as waste arisings continue to increase from households and businesses.
The agency said stronger implementation of circular economy policies, alongside measures to prevent waste generation and improve material recovery, will be essential if Ireland is to close the gap to its 2030 targets.
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