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Waste operators warned: private equity scrutiny has caught up with sector opportunity

Waste operators warned: private equity scrutiny has caught up with sector opportunity
Image credit: RWM Expo

UK waste and resource management businesses looking to scale, raise investment or plan an exit have a new dedicated space to do it at this year’s ESS Expo.

The Start-Up, Scale-Up, Innovation and Investors Network launches at NEC Birmingham on 16-17 September 2026, bringing growing operators face-to-face with the investors, advisers and corporates actively deploying capital into the sector.

The timing follows a stark message from deal advisers and investors at a recent ESS Expo webinar: private equity is pouring record levels of capital into waste and recycling, but the bar for winning that investment has never been higher.

Why the sector – and the timing – is right

Private Equity in the UK Waste Sector: Opportunities for Operators and Investors brought together BDO’s deal advisory team, Palatine Private Equity and exited waste management founder Jacqueline O’Sullivan OBE to unpack what drives valuation today.

PE interest has accelerated sharply over the past three to five years, cascading from large infrastructure deals (Macquarie into Biffa, I Squared into Enva) into the mid-market (Warren Equity into First Mile, Waterland into Cumbria Waste, Palatine into Papilio).

Todd Mills of BDO put the appetite down to a fragmented market – over 2,500 waste collection businesses in the UK – and a well-worn consolidation playbook averaging 50 sector deals a year.

Palatine’s Greg Holmes added that recent regulation, including the Environment Act, EPR and AMP8, has only reinforced investor confidence that demand isn’t cyclical – Palatine has made five acquisitions since backing Curridero, two in the last nine months at Papilio alone.

What investors are actually looking for

The average sector multiple sits between six and seven times profit, with scale the biggest driver – deals under £100m enterprise value average 5.5–6x, dropping to 5–5.5x under £20m.

Growth above 20%, EBITDA margins of 10-15%+, and evidenced repeat business (BDO’s Ben Holland noted much of the sector runs on relationships rather than paper contracts) all push valuations up.

On the downside, Alistair Rowland flagged under-investment in fleet, over-geared balance sheets and legacy liabilities as the issues most likely to stall a deal – with early adviser engagement the best way to stay ahead of them.

O’Sullivan’s own exit underlined a point due diligence often misses: her business’s staff retention and safety reputation, including gold status in the Freight Operators Recognition Scheme, added an estimated two full turns to her multiple against an otherwise identical competitor.

Where the Start-Up, Scale-Up, Innovation & Investors Network fits in

For operators weighing up exactly these questions – whether to build as a platform or prepare for a bolt-on acquisition, how investor-ready their contracts and balance sheet really are, how to evidence the value of their people – the new network puts that conversation in the room.

Alongside investors and advisers, it will showcase innovators already scaling in the sector, giving visitors a direct line to the people shaping waste and resource management’s next chapter.

Get involved

Explore the Start-Up, Scale-Up, Innovation and Investors Network and register free for ESS Expo, taking place at NEC Birmingham on 16-17 September 2026 here.

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