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Paper optimism tempered by potential Suez Canal delays

Market demand for used newspapers and over-issue news has strengthened although the recovered paper industry does not expect this to influence most contracts with local authorities.

One factor in the stronger demand is an increase in newsprint orders, while others include export orders as well as the entry of Stora Enso into the market for its Langebrugge plant in Belgium.

Newspaper publishers are producing more papers and consequently over-issue news than they had in the summer because of more news pages in the wake of the attack on the World Trade Center. But, with newspaper producers under pressure over weaker advertising revenues, the newsprint manufacturing sector is finding it hard to increase newsprint prices.

For paper recyclers, David Symmers, chief executive of the Independent Waste Paper Processors Association said that demand for most grades, especially old KLS and news and pams, was firm. “Demand continues to look good and enquiries from the Far East are continuing to arrive.”

Optimistic
Gerry West, vice president of the Bureau of International Recycling recovered paper division said: “The industry is quite optimistic at that time and we expect that prices for some grades will have to rise, partly because collection isn't keeping up with demand.”

Meanwhile, with military action apparently looming in Afghanistan, the industry is keeping a close watch on whether shipping to the Far East is disrupted. Prior to the Iraq conflict the Suez Canal was effectively closed.

Paul Dumpleton, UK recycling manager for SITA said: “The current increase in the market price for recycled newsprint may would
be in any other circumstances totally predictable and to some extent
sustainable, however, the tragic events in the US last week could well
completely turn the market on its head. Any concentrated build up of sea
going containers in the Middle East as seen during the Gulf War will
effectively rule out Far East trading and as such put all local generation
into the European Market.”

If this happened, he added, this additional material would satisfy any increase in demand in Europe in the short term and the prices would stabilise accordingly.

And, Mr Dumpleton said that what the pre World Trade Centre ( WTC) market place was demonstrating is the fact that developing capacity for newspaper recycling in Europe will continue to suck up additional generation arising from environmental legislation such as the UK's National
Waste Strategy.

Practical

“Currently the UK consumes circa 2.5 million tonnes of newspapers and 800,000 tonnes of magazines making a total of 3.3 million tonnes. Of that total close to 1.7 million tonnes is recovered in various forms. The highest practical recovery rates, such as in Germany and France demonstrate that just under 70% is actually achievable and therefore the most likely ultimate additional recovery in the UK is 2.3 million tonnes, which is an additional 600,000 tonnes over and above where we are now.”

He added: “If we look at the additional volume Stora Enso and Holmen have already committed themselves to on the continent it is likely with the competition in the UK for material, that the successful mill under the WRAP newsprint competition will have to import recycled raw material
for some considerable time before UK generation will match the demand.”

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