Greater circularity of copper is ‘critical’

Demand for copper – a critical material in renewable energy, battery storage and electricity transmission – is rising sharply.

McKinsey’s latest report, Chasing the Lost Copper: Global Scrap and its Role in Decarbonization, suggests that the industry could face a 3.6 million metric tons (Mt) shortfall in refined copper by 2035, putting supply chains under increasing strain.

The report notes that increasing circularity in copper recycling will be essential for both supply security and emissions reduction.

Investment required

Uncollected copper at present represents an estimated 7.8 Mt of lost material by 2035. However, about half of this, 4-5 Mt, is collectible and could provide a crucial supply source to help address shortages while lowering emissions. The report highlights realising this potential will require investment in collection and smelting infrastructure, regulatory support and stronger cross-industry collaboration.

Today, the total refined copper supply only contains about 20% postconsumer scrap. McKinsey projected that this share is expected to increase to 25% by 2035. However, current collection and processing limitations prevent the industry from integrating more of the copper scrap arising each year.

The report found that recycling presents one of the most effective pathways to decarbonisation, given that postconsumer scrap is a low-carbon feedstock.

Peter Spiller, partner, McKinsey, said: “As the industry looks to scale circularity, expanding formal collection networks, investing in secondary smelting capacity and securing long-term scrap supply agreements will be critical. Capturing lost copper through improved recycling processes is not just an environmental imperative – it’s an economic opportunity for the industry.”

For more insights and to access the full report, visit here.