He told delegates at the CIWM Conference in Torbay that UK recovered paper consumption will fall below 4 million tonnes in 2007. As a result there will be a need to export 4.4 million tonnes of waste paper to keep up with the expanding paper recycling collections, he explained, making the UK the largest exporter of waste paper among European nations.
And, Mr Symmers warned: “In 10 years' time we will need 6 million tonnes of exports to avoid a fibre mountain.”
Investment
Even with a new paper mill on the cards for the UK (see letsrecycle.com story), Mr Symmers said there was not enough investment going into new paper machines to keep up with the rising tide of waste paper collected from homes and businesses.
He explained that every 1,000 tonnes of capacity needed £1 million in new paper machinery, and that therefore it was not realistic for the UK to cut its dependence on exports.
| UK paper (figures in millions of tonnes) |
2000 | 2006 | |
| Total consumption | 12.9 | 12.3 | |
| UK production | 6.6 | 5.6 | |
| Shortfall | 6.3 | 6.7 | |
| RCF – UK usage | 4.9 | 4.2 | |
| RCF – exports | 0.55 | 3.95 | |
| Consumption ratio | 74% | 75% | |
| Recovery ratio | 42% | 65% | |
| Source: IWPPA | |||
This would prove risky if China and India – the main export markets for recovered paper – started expanding their own waste paper collections, or started investing in forestry, he said. More than 75% of exported waste paper from the UK is sent to markets outside of Europe, with some of the material sent to Europe then also sent on to final destinations in the Far East.
Demand
On the positive side, Mr Symmers said China and India were predicted to continue growing their demand for recovered paper over the next 10 years, and that a buoyant export market actually helped domestic paper reprocessors in supporting prices for paper that then could support the collection chain.
He said: “25 years ago paper consumption in China was 4kg per head – it is now 44kg per head, with production at over 66 million tonnes per annum, including the use of almost 20 million tonnes of imported recovered fibre.”
Mill capacity in China looks set to build to 90 million tonnes by 2011 – with China overtaking the USA as the world's largest producer – with new, fast machines being established. In terms of competition for imported recovered fibre, he said China's waste paper collections are building, but at the moment the quality of collected paper is low, while the country's forestry is also limited at present – China has just 4% of the world's forest cover, despite having 20% of the world's population.
He said China would remain “reliant” on imported fibre, with its imports set to rise to 8 million tonnes.
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