The Environment Agency has published data for the third quarter of 2011 on its National Packaging Waste Database showing that 1.809 million tonnes of packaging waste was sent for recycling or energy recovery between July and September. Although slightly down when compared to the 1.937 million tonnes achieved for the same period in 2010, this is broadly consistent with performance over the last couple of years and some large reprocessors are still to report their figures.
Strong performance in the third quarterwas particularly seenthe case of aluminium, where an unprecedented 20,249 tonnes was reprocessed or exported. This means that only 2,636 tonnes of material needs to be recycled in the final quarter of 2011 for the 62,689 tonne business target to be met (see table below).
Similarly in the case of paper, asignificant 827,124 tonnes of material was sent for recycling. This means that only2,540 tonnes of paper packaging will need to be reprocessed before the end of this year for its material-specific target to be reached. This is likely to put further downward pressure on the prices of paper and aluminium PRNs which are currently already selling at just 1 and 2.50 respectively. This comes despite signs that prices for recovered paper and cardboard have been softening in recent weeks due to a drop in demand from Europe and China (see letsrecycle.com story).
Despite these positive trends, however, the figures also show a considerable decline in the amount of wood sent for recycling which has largely been attributed to the ongoing closure of the Sonae chipboard factory in Knowsley, which is one of the UKs largest end users of recycled woodchip (see letsrecycle.com story). In all, 27.5% less wood waste was sent for recycling in quarter three 2011 compared to quarter four. But, as the material-specific target for wood has already been met and the general obligation can also be covered by paper, this is not thought likely to cause any major problems in the PRN system.
Packagingrecycling and recovery carried out in the first three quarters of of 2011
| Carry over from 2010 (tonnes) |
Q1 2011 (tonnes) | Q2 2011 (tonnes) | Q3 2011 (tonnes) | Target (tonnes) |
Required in Q4 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paper | 183,316 | 802,095 | 776,420 | 827,124 | 2,562,268 | -26,687 |
| Glass | 12,215 | 449,789 | 441,707 | 441,011 | 1,704,467 | 371,960 |
| Al | 3,615 | 17,954 | 18,331 | 20,249 | 62,689 | 2,540 |
| Steel | 17,747 | 88,568 | 108,441 | 94,502 | 348,250 | 38,992 |
| Plastic | 26,642 | 142,929 | 160,621 | 155,931 | 607,584 | 121,461 |
| Wood | 24,552 | 176,822 | 161,859 | 117,275 | 228,154 | -252,354 |
| EfW | 33,040 | 170,366 | 168,789 | 153,799 | n/a | n/a |
| Total Recycling | 268,087 | 1,678,157 | 1,667,379 | 1,656,092 | 6,483,775 | 1,214,060 |
| Total Recycling and Recovery | 301,127 | 1,848,523 | 1,836,168 | 1,809,891 | 6,964,840 | 1,169,131 |
Source: letsrecycle.com analysis of figuresfrom the National Packaging Waste Database
The only material where the market could be at all tight appears to be plastics where121,461 tonnes of material still needs to be sent for recycling this year. However, this is still significantly below the quarterly average achieved so far in 2011 for this material.
“The Q3 figures show recycling and export rates seem to have remained resolute”
Thomas Rickerby, t2e
Commenting on the figures, Thoms Rickerby, senior market operator at The Environment Exchange PRN trading platform, said: Set to a backdrop of high volatility in the financial and commodities markets, the Q3 figures show recycling and export rates seem to have remained resolute.
“There is little evidence of the reported slow down in the export markets with paper and aluminium showing good quarter-on-quarter growth. Steel, plastic and glass remain stable, with only wood showing a significant fall. The latter can be put down to growth in the biomass markets and the continued impact of the fire at the Sonae chipboard plant in Knowsley.
Gareth Goodall, of PRN trading platform Scrap-ex, added that the impact of Sonae on the wood figures was interesting but said its probably too late on in the year to have much of an impact on price”.
2012
Looking ahead to 2012, Mr Goodall said that things might get interesting because of economicuncertainty and the fact that the packaging recycling targets for business are to remain the same, putting further downward pressure on PRN prices.
He said: “It will be very interesting to see what will happen next year. Material prices are down and export demand has clearly reduced. We will also see [ SAICAs new paper mill at ] Partington ramping up from Q1 which may have an impact on the Paper PRNs. We are also going to see some more reprocessors dropping out because the numbers dont add up for them at these PRN levels.”
Chris Taylor, from recycling and compliance specialist Clarity Environmental, added: “We project that the market will be in surplus by 5-6% at the end of the year and with targets staying the same for next year we could easily see soft pricing continue through 2012. This could lead to increased lack of interest from some reprocessors but the market is looking stable as we are still seeing new reprocessors registering to supply PRNs”.
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