The Environment Agency has published data giving the first indication of what demand for PRNs will be like this year. And, it reveals that the market for plastics and steel could be tighter than some had expected, while compliancewith regards toother materials should be easily achievable.
The obligation figures, published on the National Packaging Waste Database (NPWD) yesterday afternoon (May 17), detail how much packaging waste was placed on the market by packaging producers during 2010. This determines how much packaging recycling evidence – known as PRNs – producers are obligated to buy this year under the packaging regulations.
While these numbers are subject to change, as more producers register or others go out of business, it suggests that recycling levels for plastics and possibly steel will need to increase this year if the obligations are to be met.
This is becausethe amount of plastics recycling and recovery which will be required to meet the obligation each quarter is higher than that which has so far been achieved during the first quarter of the year (see bottom table). The plastics obligation also increased by 11% year-on-year in tonnage terms.
Last month, unverified first quarter data had indicated that the plastics market may be tight (see letsrecycle.com story). And, verified Q1 data was published yesterday alongside the obligation figures confirming this.
Thelevel of demand for plastics and steel can be attributed to the fact that the target for plastics and steel rose from 29% to 32% and from 69% to 71% respectively this year, while the targets for other materials did not rise (see letsrecycle.com story).
It is understood that, following the publication of the obligation data,the price being paid for plastics PRNs has already risen from around 3.50 to around 5/tonne on the spot market.
Obligation data – comparison between 2010 and 2011
| Material | 2011 target (%) | 2011 obligation (tonnes)* | 2010 target (%) | 2010 obligation (tonnes) | Year-on-year change in obligation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paper | 69.5 | 2,545,953 | 69.5 | 2,535,057 | +0.4% |
| Glass | 81 | 1,696,753 | 81 | 1,696,867 | -0.01% |
| Aluminium | 40 | 61,489 | 40 | 59,175 | +3.91% |
| Steel | 71 | 345,131 | 69 | 340,130 | +1.47% |
| Plastic | 32 | 604,991 | 29 | 544,887 | +11% |
| Wood | 22 | 225,177 | 22 | 204,749 | +9.98% |
| Total recycling | 68.1 | 6,444,309 | – | 6,357,078 | +1.37% |
| Total recycling and recovery | 74 | 6,922,395 | 74 | 6,827,440 | +1.39% |
*figure subject to change during the year
Unsurprising
Despite some tightness in the plastics market, David Adams, managing director of compliance and recycling specialist Clarity Environmental, said that the figures did not come as a surprise and that he was confident UK businesses would still meet their obligations this year.
He told letsrecycle.com: The data is unsurprising; the increased targets have done little to drive up the total UK obligation. If UK reprocessing output continues at existing levels, the UK will comply with ease in 2011.
Talk of a shortfall in plastic are not causing us too much concern, given that smaller reprocessor/export registrations can easily up-grade to the large status and that the plastic PRN price has already passed the 4 mark, the perceived trigger price to stimulate export activity.
Overall, the data shows that the UK obligation increased from 6,827,440 tonnes in 2010 to 6,922,395 tonnes in 2011 an increase of almost 95,000 tonnes.
The register also reveals that the total number of registrations is down by 100 producers something which has been attributed to mergers, acquisitions and liquidations due to economy changes – while the number of direct registrations remains the same.
Mr Adams said: This [direct registration] figure is somewhat misleading; it suggests no change but there have been a number of migrations this year and we are looking at 64 new names appearing on the directly registered database including large household names previously complying through compliance schemes.
Comparison between quarterly obligations and performance in Q1
| Material | Quarterly 2011 obligation* (based on annual obligation) | Q1 2011 recovery and recyclingperformance (t) |
|---|---|---|
| Paper | 636,488 | 780,656 |
| Glass | 424,188 | 449,789 |
| Aluminium | 15,372 | 17,930 |
| Steel | 86,282 | 87,863 |
| Plastic | 151,247 | 141,366 |
| Wood | 56,294 | 176,822 |
*figure subject to change during the year
Other materials
Aside from steel and plastics, the NPWD figures also show a 10% rise in how much wood packaging was placed on the market last year and therefore in the obligation this year representing some possible resurgence in the market. However, this is not expected to cause any problems with regards to compliance as wood PRNs are in high supply.
Meanwhile, the aluminium obligation crept up by almost 4%, while there was minimal year-on-year change for glass and paper (see table).
Duncan Simpson, of compliance scheme Valpak, said: Aluminium is up and wood seems to have gone up quite significantly. Reasons for this include the fact that companies have been forced to buy new pallets, some due to regulatory issues but also because of lack of 2nd hand pallets, probably due to demand for waste wood for biomass.
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Mr Simpson said that he did not foresee the data causing any significant problems in the year to come, but stressed that the obligation data was not final and that the aluminium data looked odd in particular with some possible anomalies.
He commented: When people submit data sometimes there are errors so I expect there will be some adjustments going forward.”
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