The likelihood of meeting the EU landfill directive target for 2020 was underestimated, according to Defras updated waste arisings and treatment capacity forecasting.
The update was published by Defra last week (October 18) alongside its decision to withdraw 160 million funding for Norfolk county councils 25-year energy-from-waste contract with Cory Wheelabrator (see letsrecycle.com story).
According to Defra, its original February 2013 forecasting analysis did not fully account for all the known potential capacity expected to be delivered by 2020, which means that the likelihood of meeting the target was underestimated.
Under the Landfill Directive, the UK must reduce biodegradable municipal waste (BMW) landfilled to 50% of the 1995 level by 2013, and to 35% of the 1995 level by 2020.
The updated information implies average estimated biodegradable municipal waste diversion capacity of around 6.4 million tonnes by 2020 with no contribution from the Norfolk project, or approximately 6.6 million tonnes if the NCC project is assumed to be delivered by 2020. This is higher than the 5.911 million tonnes forecast in the previous February 2013 report.
Waste arisings
The report states that future levels of waste arisings are uncertain and therefore a range of forecasts are used, but the mean estimate of household waste arisings shows the figure increasing slightly to 23.2 million tonnes per year in 2020. In 2011/12, household waste arisings were 22.9 million tonnes.
Average waste arisings for commercial and industrial (C&I) waste are expected to fall by 2020 to 43.9 million tonnes, although data for C&I waste arisings is not regularly collected as the EU landfill directive target relates only to biodegradable municipal waste. In 2009, C&I waste arisings was estimated to be 47.9 million tonnes.
With regards to recycling, the report forecasts an upward trend in recycling rates from 43% in 2011 to 51% in 2020.
There has been disagreement in the waste industry over waste arisings and treatment capacity, with the Association of Directors of Environment, Economy, Planning & Transport (ADEPT) raising concerns of a capacity gap as it claims that waste arisings figures are in fact increasing (see letsrecycle.com story).
However, the Defra report states that although there is a very wide range of possible net capacity positions in 2020, the most likely outcome is that there will be more capacity than required to meet the target.
The report concludes that there is a high likelihood of meeting or exceeding the target using the range of inputs that we believe to be realistic.
Waste projects
Three waste projects in North Yorkshire, Merseyside and Bradford had provisional funding support from the government withdrawn in February 2013 (see letsrecycle.com story).
According to the report, withdrawing provisional financial support from projects yet to reach financial close significantly reduces the likelihood of them going ahead, although the Mersyside plant looks set to still be constructed after alternative funding was secured.
The updated report estimates that had Defra provided financial support to these projects, the UK would have had a 97% likelihood of meeting 2020 landfill targets, with a mean surplus treatment capacity of 2.7 million tonnes.
However, with funding withdrawn for the three projects and if the Norfolk project does not go ahead, the UK has a 95% likelihood of meeting the EU targets, with a mean surplus treatment capacity of 2.5 million tonnes.
But, the likelihood rises to 96% if the Norfolk EfW plant is operating by 2020.
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