Overall, the figures suggest that if current recycling rates continue, there should be easily enough packaging waste recovery notes (PRNs) or their export equivalent, PERNs, to satisfy demand from producers.
PRNs and PERNs are the evidence documentation that show producers have invested in packaging waste recovery according to their obligations under the producer responsibility regulations.
However, the generally comfortable situation for packaging producers will mean PRN and PERN values are likely to remain relatively low. This would limit producer investment in new recycling capacity, and would support the suggestions from Defra that it would like to increase recycling targets under the producer responsibility system.
Figures
Analysis by letsrecycle.com of the figures for packaging waste recovery in Q2, 2007, suggests that total recovery of packaging waste saw a 3% increase on the same period in 2006:
| Packaging waste Q2, 2007 | Reprocessing in UK (t) | Change on Q2, '06 (%) |
Exports (t) | Change on Q2, '06 (%) |
Total | Change on Q2, '06 (%) |
| Paper | 349,206 | -7.98 | 366,200 | +10.79 | 715,406 | +0.75 |
| Glass | 310,789 | +12.49 | 82,709 | +35.46 | 393,498 | +16.64 |
| Aluminium | 5,796 | -32.52 | 3,179 | -2.78 | 8,975 | -24.32 |
| Steel | 52,161 | +10.85 | 26,400 | -53.29 | 78,561 | -24.15 |
| Plastic | 40,262 | -1.82 | 74,106 | -10.61 | 114,368 | -7.70 |
| Wood | 234,890 | +9.97 | 0 | 234,890 | +9.97 | |
| Total Recycling | 993,104 | +2.80 | 552,594 | +3.43 | 1,545,698 | +3.03 |
| EfW | 126,668 | +6.49 | 0 | 126,668 | +6.49 | |
| Total Recovery | 1,119,772 | +3.21 | 552,594 | +3.43 | 1,672,366 | +3.28 |
The National Packaging Waste Database notes that 20 reprocessors and exporters are still to report their data for Quarter 2, 2007. This includes one large paper reprocessor, one large plastic reprocessor, one large wood reprocessor, one large aluminium exporter and two large steel exporters.
The data from these reprocessors/exporters can only add to the generally comfortable situation for PRNs/PERNs this year.
Taking into account revised figures for the first quarter of 2007, an idea of PRN/PERN availability this year can be estimated by annualising the figures from the first half of this year and comparing them against the targets:
| Potential PRNs in 2007 (t) | Q1 2007 | Q2 2007 | 2006-7 Carry over |
Annualised 2007 total (plus '06 carry over) | Estimated Target 2007* |
Surplus/ Shortage in 2007 |
| Paper | 744,996 | 715,406 | 223,022 | 3,143,826 | 2,315,534.07 | +828,292 |
| Glass | 358,438 | 393,498 | 80,173 | 1,584,045 | 1,414,780.92 | +169,264 |
| Aluminium | 8,692 | 8,975 | 5,015 | 40,349 | 40,918.76 | -570 |
| Steel | 97,522 | 78,561 | 30,009 | 382,175 | 322,688.85 | +59,486 |
| Plastic | 115,419 | 114,368 | 18,929 | 478,503 | 444,864 | +33,639 |
| Wood | 212,640 | 234,890 | 62,725 | 957,785 | 191,567 | +766,218 |
| Total Recycling | 1,537,707 | 1,545,698 | 419,876 | 6,586,686 | 5,558,267.42 | +1,028,419 |
| EfW | 128,989 | 126,668 | 33,212 | 544,526 | 483327.6 | +61,198 |
| Total Recovery | 1,666,696 | 1,672,366 | 453,088 | 7,131,212 | 6,041,595.02 | +1,089,617 |
* [Note:] The above table estimates this year's tonnage targets using last year's total for the amount of packaging waste put on the market by obligated producers. This year's obligation figures have not yet been released by the agencies.
Metals
The one proviso to the generally comfortable situation for PRN/PERN availability this year is in aluminium, where exporters are currently wrestling with new requirements for foreign reprocessors – a situation that aluminium producer organisation Alupro believes will right itself by the end of the year (see letsrecycle.com story).
The figures for Q2 do show a significant drop in steel exports, but the National Packaging Waste Database notes that the environment agencies are still awaiting data for Q2 from two large steel exporters – including one of the largest steel exporters. Experts believe once this data is included, the situation should be back on track.
Glass
A surge in glass recycling during this quarter – 16% up on the same period in 2006 – helped by increased reprocessing means that even in the glass sector, there should be a surplus of PRNs available this year.
The glass sector has the steepest rising recycling targets out of the packaging materials, but the new data suggests there could be around 90,000 tonnes of glass PRNs to carry forward in December to use against next year's targets, if current recycling rates continue.
Elsewhere in the Q2 figures, the paper sector demonstrates a continuing move towards relying on exports, with domestic reprocessing down 8% on the same period last year, while exports increased by 10% to shore up a slight increase in paper packaging waste processing overall.
Paper PRN prices are likely to remain low, since annualised figures for quarter one and two suggest there will be plenty of the notes available this year to use against material-specific paper targets as well as the overall recycling targets.
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