The report showed that e-commerce has overtaken consumer durables, non-durables and industrial allocations to become the fastest-growing segment of the secondary packaging market worldwide.
While overall secondary packaging volumes are expected to grow steadily over the rest of the decade, Smithers says the mix of materials, formats and end-use locations is changing fundamentally, with warehouses, fulfilment centres and parcel networks now exerting far greater influence on packaging demand than traditional retail channels.
Josh Brooks, Divisional Director – Packaging at Easyfairs, commented: “The global packaging industry is placing increasing emphasis on improving the environmental sustainability of its products as consumer expectations and regulatory requirements continue to intensify.
“Companies are working to reduce material use, adopt recyclable or renewable resources, and lessen overall environmental impact.”
Secondary packaging volumes set to rise
Smithers’ data found that European e-commerce secondary packaging volumes are set to rise by 45% by 2030, compared with growth of just 10.5% across the total secondary packaging market.
In volume terms, e-commerce packaging is forecast to increase from 4.7 million tonnes in 2023 to 6.8 million tonnes by 2030.
Over the same period, total secondary packaging volumes are expected to rise from 30.6 million tonnes to 33.8 million tonnes.
Brooks added: “In Europe, EU member states are preparing to implement the PPWR over the next five years, aiming to meet the 2030 target for fully recyclable packaging.
“This regulatory push underscores the growing urgency for innovation that aligns environmental responsibility with reliable packaging performance.”
Paper to see most growth
Among material tyres, paper-based protective packaging was forecast to see some of the strongest growth.
The report suggested that paper fill will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CARG) of 3.9% through to 2030, supported by the rollout of automated paper dispensing systems in large-scale e-commerce fulfilment centres.
In the UK, paper is increasingly being selected not only for environmental reasons but also for perceived operational and regulatory advantages.
Smithers highlights the role of the Plastic Packaging Tax, lower extended producer responsibility (EPR) liabilities and the wide acceptance of paper in kerbside recycling schemes as key factors influencing material choice.
Smithers also identified returnable and reusable secondary packaging as an emerging opportunity, particularly in closed-loop or business-to-business supply chains.
However, the report highlighted several barriers that could limit uptake in the near term, including higher upfront costs, low return rates, durability requirements and the logistical challenges associated with reverse logistics, cleaning and redistribution.
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