| April 2003
As
registration of obligated packaging waste
producers for 2003-04 comes to a close this month,
the industry is beginning to ask questions
concerning how packaging waste recovery targets
will shape up over the next few years. James
Cartledge looks into the possibilities for the
next five years.
After the unpopular decision by environment
minister Michael Meacher to keep 2003 recovery
targets the same as those in 2002, it is widely
expected that 2004 targets will be increased
significantly.
The minister is known to be concerned that his
decision - made because of the uncertainty
surrounding the proposed European targets for 2008
- has depressed PRN prices leading to a decrease
in investment into UK infrastructure.
Current figures suggest that the UK recovered
about 53% of its total packaging waste and
recycled about 47% in 2002 (see table below). This
is up from 48% recovery and 42% recycling of total
packaging waste in 2001 (see letsrecycle.com
story).
Table 1: The current
state of UK packaging recovery
| 2002 |
Packaging in UK waste
(t) |
Reported packaging (t) |
Packaging recycling levels
(t) |
Recycling rate against total
(%) |
Recycling rate against reported
(%) |
| Paper |
3,725,652 |
3,131,063 |
2,199,606 |
59.04 |
70.25 |
| Glass |
2,190,665 |
1,736,490 |
745,674 |
34.04 |
42.94 |
| Aluminium |
140,000 |
122,814 |
32,193 |
23.00 |
26.21 |
| Steel |
690,000 |
595,554 |
306,314 |
44.39 |
51.43 |
| Plastic |
1,740,000 |
1,514,646 |
390,426 |
22.44 |
25.78 |
| Wood1 |
1,009,524 |
795,920 |
831,390 |
82.35 |
104.46 |
| Other |
25,000 |
18,390 |
|
|
|
| Recycling total |
|
|
4,505,603 |
47.32 |
56.93 |
| Recovery |
|
|
546,274 |
|
|
| Total (inc. recovery) |
9,520,841 |
7,914,876 |
5,051,877 |
53.06 |
63.83 | 1 Some
recycling figures, including wood and possibly
plastics, are subject to allegations concerning
the inappropriate issuing of PRNs (see letsrecycle.com
story).
The ACP is to meet on April 14 2003 before
delivering its recommendations on many aspects of
the packaging waste recovery system to ministers.
The ACP's recommendations will be considered by
DEFRA officials before the release of a
consultation document on future packaging waste
recovery targets in May or June.
Industry analysts have already isolated some
key areas for concern. Taking the current national
packaging waste recycling and recovery rates and
extrapolating figures for the years leading up to
the proposed 2008 demands of the European
Directive, an indication of what the UK needs to
achieve can be ascertained and is shown in table
2:
Table 2: Current and
projected recovery rates up to 2008
| UK |
material specific recycling rates
(%) |
overall
recycling
rate
(%) |
overall
recovery
rate
(%) |
| |
paper |
glass |
aluminium |
steel |
plastic |
wood |
|
|
| 2002-032 |
59.0 |
34.0 |
23.0 |
44.4 |
22.4 |
15.0 |
47.3 |
53.1 |
| 20043 |
59.2 |
39.2 |
28.4 |
45.5 |
22.5 |
15.0 |
49.9 |
55.4 |
| 20053 |
59.4 |
44.4 |
33.8 |
46.6 |
22.5 |
15.0 |
52.4 |
57.8 |
| 20063 |
59.6 |
49.6 |
39.2 |
47.8 |
22.5 |
15.0 |
54.9 |
60.2 |
| 20073 |
59.8 |
54.8 |
44.6 |
48.9 |
22.5 |
15.0 |
57.5 |
62.6 |
| 2008 EU target4 |
60 |
60 |
50 |
50 |
22.5 |
15.0 |
60 |
65 | 2 Current rates
3 Projected figures
4 Proposed
targets - still subject to a final decision at a
European level (see letsrecycle.com
story)
Because of de minimis rules in UK
packaging waste regulations, which means companies
that handle less than 50 tonnes of packaging a
year and have a turnover less than £2 million, a
certain amount of packaging falls outside the
legal obligation for recovery. The suspected
presence of 'free riders' also adds to the
problem, which means that obligated businesses
have to recycle or recover a greater proportion of
their waste to reach the national target.
So, although the national container glass
recycling rate is currently 34%, in actual fact
42.9% of the obligated glass is being recycled. In
short, because of the de minimis a larger
amount of the obligated tonnage has to be recycled
to cover for the de minimis material wihch
is not obligated, but is still included in the
overall target. This means that in order to reach
a national target of 60% in 2008, glass will have
to be recycled at a rate 75.7%.
National minimum specific targets would
therefore have to take account of this gearing
effect. Using the same extrapolation method, but
with the actual business rates needed, we see the
following requirements for future years up until
2008:
Table 3: Current
business recovery rates and potential
recycling/recovery targets
| Obligated
businesses |
material specific recycling rates
(%) |
overall
recycling
rate
(%) |
overall
recovery
rate
(%) |
| |
paper |
glass |
aluminium |
steel |
plastic |
wood |
|
|
| 2002-035 |
70.3 |
42.9 |
26.2 |
51.4 |
25.8 |
18.6 |
56.9 |
63.8 |
| 20046 |
70.5 |
49.5 |
32.4 |
52.7 |
25.8 |
18.7 |
60.0 |
66.7 |
| 20056 |
70.7 |
56.0 |
38.5 |
54.0 |
25.8 |
18.8 |
63.0 |
69.6 |
| 20066 |
70.9 |
62.6 |
44.7 |
55.3 |
25.8 |
18.9 |
66.1 |
72.4 |
| 20076 |
71.2 |
69.1 |
50.8 |
56.6 |
25.8 |
18.9 |
69.1 |
75.3 |
| 20087 |
71.4 |
75.7 |
57.0 |
57.9 |
25.8 |
19.0 |
72.2 |
78.2 | 5 Current rates
6 Projected figures
7 Business
targets calculated from the proposed 2008 national
targets (still subject to a final decision at a
European level).
These figures show that a real leap in performance will be needed in the glass and aluminium sectors. In glass, the
national rate has to get from 34% to about 60% in five years - the equivalent for obligated businesses of getting from 42.9%
to 75.7% by 2008. Aluminium similarly has to virtually double its rates. The resulting demand for PRNs could see PRN prices
in these materials rocketing - and some have predicted that this time next year, glass PRN prices could be over £30 a tonne.
The figures also show that the current performance in paper, plastic and wood sectors is already close to the
2008 European target. Although there is some question as to the accuracy of the wood and plastics data, with the
allegations of the wrongful issuing of PRNs currently under investigation by DEFRA, this lack of incentive to raise the recycling levels
in these materials could have a dramatic effect on PRN prices for these materials.
Future Targets
There are some who believe that environment minister Michael Meacher would be wise in future years to set the minimum
specific targets for paper, plastic and wood at a higher level than would be required to meet European demands. The
extra recycling would then contribute towards the UK's overall recycling and recovery targets.
The government hasn't yet decided on how its targets will shape up in the period before 2008, though there will be a
recommendation made to it from the Advisory Committee on Packaging before the government then opens up a wider consultation
on the issue.
But there has already been some speculation in the industry as to what might happen. DEFRA could choose to increase the
targets steadily over the years towards the 2008 requirements. This would see targets for obligated businesses similar to
the figures shown in the second table above. It would mean the minimum specific recycling figure
for glass, for example, would jump up from the current 19% level (the same as all of the other materials) to 49.5%.
There are many other options, however - the government could decide to raise targets slowly at first and more radically
closer to 2008, or go for higher target increases in earlier years and less radical increases just before 2008. Targets
could even surpass 2008 demands in order to make absolutely certain the UK reaches the Packaging Waste Directive's demands.
What is thought likely in the consultation is that the government will suggest announcing targets in three-year periods,
in order to provide more certainty for businesses.
The Corbey Effect
The tables within this report show the run-up to 2008. However, the date of the next European target is still subject to a final decision at European level
(see letsrecycle.com story).
The European Parliament, as well as MEP Dorette Corbey, the Dutch rapporteur of the proposal
to amend the previously agreed 2006 targets, originally
wanted these targets to be reached in 2006. The Council of Ministers - supported by industry -
said a more feasible date would be 2008.
It is thought in some circles that the European Parliament and the Council of Ministers could
agree to a compromise date - 2007 - which would mean
that the requirements as indicated in the tables within this report would move forward a year,
increasing the pressure on the UK glass and aluminium sectors even further.
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