Environment Minister Michael Meacher has already conceded that the UK could miss the European Union packaging recovery targets which have to be met by June this year. If they are not met, "it won't be by much" the minister said last month.

His concern is unsurprising for the UK has a big challenge ahead to meet the requirements this year although there is growing optimism that they will be met. And, the Department of Environment, Transport and the Regions will not actually have to deliver full 2001 figures until mid-2002 to the European Commission. So, if in June it can show that the UK targets for 2000 were met and then using hopefully positive first and second quarter data for 2001, the DETR expects to be able to demonstrate that the UK is likely to achieve compliance this year.

The situation may be helped by the fact that under the UK system, the recovery and recycling evidence of PRNs (packaging waste recovery notes) runs over a 13 month period. This means that PRNs issued in December 2000 can be carried over to January 2001 so increasing the amount available this year and helping to push up the results for the first six months of the year. On the other hand, if the December 2001 PRNs are carried forward to January 2002 then we will be back to a 12 month period, but many in the industry are expecting a large number of December 2001 PRNs to be used this year.

The governmentÕs original proposed target figures for 2001 would have failed to deliver the required EU amount by June Ñ 50% recovery of packaging waste.

The urgency of the situation prompted a reassessment last summer when it was realised that the outlook was bad. So, the DETR issued a consultation paper on higher targets: this can be found in the archive section on consultation documents at the DETR website under the title "Recovery and Recycling Targets for Packaging Waste in 2001".

Then, following the consultation, on November 21 2000 the government published its decision which was to go for a 56% recovery and 18% material-specific recycling of packaging waste. These two figures replaced the 52% recovery target and the 16% material-specific recycling target originally planned for 2001. They compare to the 2000 domestic targets of 45% recovery and 13% for material-specific recycling.

Even though the EU only requires a 50% recovery rate, the UK has had to go for a higher figure around the 56% mark because some material is not covered by the legislation, such as that handled by small businesses.

The government had suggested that the figure for the UK might have been 58% this year prompting a chorus of disapproval from industry which feared that this would push up their costs for PRNs excessively high. Some observers now believe that the DETR fudged the figures in various ways and bowed to compliance schemes by settling the figure at 56%. The DETR on the other hand argues that it is a sensible mathematical calculation taking in many factors and should allow a surplus tonnage of 96,000 tonnes delivering a true recovery rate of 51%, as against the EUÕs 50%. This would see the UK recovering about 4.7 million tonnes of packaging waste this year.

Announcing the targets (full details are on the DETR website at packaging targets) Environment Minister Michael Meacher told the House of Commons: "The first recovery and recycling targets which member states must reach under the European Packaging Directive come into force in 2001, and the obligations placed on UK producers, under the packaging regulations are central to the UK meeting these targets.

"My department has reviewed all the figures that were used to inform the development of domestic targets in our recent consultation paper, and these revised figures suggest that a recovery target of 56% and a material-specific recycling target of 18% would allow the UK to comply with the targets in the packaging directive."

Explaining the decision not to use the 58% figure, Mr Meacher said, in a written answer, that there is now more recent data available from industry which allowed his department to review all the figures.

"I think it is only prudent to provide a small safety margin to allow for error in the Department's assessment of the additional tonnages which have to be brought within the scope of obligated packaging by 2001 and also to take account of the possibility that the tonnage reported by the smaller businesses (with turnover between £2m and £5m) who were obligated for the first time this year may decrease in their second year of obligation, as their figures improve, as was the case with the data provided by the larger (turnover over £5m) businesses in their second year of obligation."

Statistics play a key part in the regulation and the following tables show the figures and tonnages for various years.

The table below shows the actual recovery and recycling targets in the regulations and the directive targets.

The early achievements of the UK Ñ for 1998 and 1999 Ñ are shown in the table below with full data for 2000 still to be released by the Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions. However, data for the first nine months is available and is shown in a separate table below.

Total reprocessed 1998 and 1999
as reported to the Environment Agency and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency; (reprocessed means recycled or composted or recovered by means of incineration with energy recovery)

source DETR

The above two tables were contained in the DETR consultation paper on its plans for higher targets published in August. It pointed out then that in 1998 and 1999 there was an overall increase in recycling and recovery of 359,000 tonnes It added: "Further increases in recovery and recycling can be expected in the course of 2000, but there remains a major increase in recovery and recycling to be achieved by 2001 if the UK is to meet its targets set in the Packaging and Packaging Waste Directive."

The DETR concluded, using further data, that 50% of 9,212,971 tonnes would have to be recovered in 2001.

When Mr Meacher announced the 56% target figure for 2001 in November, the DETR also published two tables. The first showed recovery and recycling carried out in the first nine months of 2000 and the second showed packaging reported in 2000 and estimates for 2001.

Packaging reported in 2000; estimates for 2001

• Data in column (1) are the tonnages reported by obligated businesses (above £2m turnover and handling more than 50t) in 2000 to the Agencies and Environment and Heritage Service (NI).
• Data in column (2) represent the tonnage that it is estimated will be reported by UK businesses in 2001. Data for Paper, Wood and Other include assumptions for tonnages not yet reported but which should be obligated in 2001. These assumptions are the most recent, taking account, for example, of actual Northern Ireland information for the first time.
• Data in column (3) represent the estimated amount of packaging handled by non obligated businesses. This is calculated by deducting column (2) data from column (5) estimates;
• Column (4) represents the percentage amount of each packaging material that is estimated to be handled by non-obligated businesses.
• Data in column (5) represent the amount of packaging flowing in to the waste stream as estimated by the Material Organisations (MOs). For some materials (glass, aluminium and plastic) the MO figures show a slight increase over what was presented in the August 2000 Consultation Paper on Recovery and Recycling Targets for 2001 following revision of growth estimates and corrections.

In 2000, there are 5,433 registration which cover some 14,000 businesses (i.e. who are registered either individually with an Agency or as a member of a compliance scheme or as part of a group registration with the Agency or a scheme).

Recovery and recycling carried out in 2000 (first three quarters)

These figures represent the tonnages reported to the Agencies and the Environment and Heritage Service in Northern Ireland by accredited reprocessors and those issuing PERNs.

source DETR

Now, all attention will be on whether or not the targets are achieved in 2001 and also how they are achieved. There seems to be a consensus that PRN prices will rise in mid-year, but most sources now expect the targets to be met, although plastics could still see a slight shortfall.